PRODUCTS & MARKETS

2024: Global Market in Focus (Demand & Supply)

• The global aluminum market presented a complex picture, shaped by both macroeconomic headwinds and region-specific trends. While the global economy displayed resilience with moderating inflation and stabilising growth, geopolitical tensions and supply constraints posed ongoing risks. Demand exhibited regional variations: China saw a 4% year-over-year increase, driven by energy and transportation sectors, though oversupply concerns persisted; the Middle East experienced a modest 1% rise, with Bahrain leading regional growth at 4%; Europe’s consumption remained flat, impacted by manufacturing weaknesses; and North America witnessed a 1% decline, with sector-specific fluctuations.

• On the supply side, China’s output grew by 3%, nearing its capacity limit, while Europe saw a 2% increase supported by Germany and Russia. The Middle East’s supply rose by 1%, with Saudi Arabia contributing significantly. North American production fell by 2%, primarily due to the closure of the New Madrid smelter in the US.
• The global market balance reflected a slight deficit with inventories falling below historical norms, indicating a tighter market, a slight deficit with China (c. 242,000 MT), and surplus without China (c. 41,000 MT).
• LME Cash averaged US$2,419/t in 2024 – up by 7% YoY.